 [Larger view] | War and Anti-War : Making Sense of Today's Gloabal Chaos
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 Interesting, but not good enough | |
| Reading this book was rather like going into a 400 page Newsweek article. Even though the theory about "waves" can seem appealing, the authors fail to provide a theorical framework for the ideas they propose. Ok, so the wars of the future will be different.. so what? There's no explanation within the book that tries at least to determine what the causes of the future wars will be. It leaves the door open for any "random" cause to ignite a war. Anyway, I could say the anecdothic style of the book makes it easy to read, but if you're looking for a more in-depth text about wars and their future implications, forget about this one. | |
 The Third Wave | |
| The Toffler's have written a very engaging book about the coming age of war in what they call the 'third wave'- or a post industrial society. Information, according to the Tofflers, will become the vital component of future conflicts in the way that territory and resources were in the second wave. The details and the theory that they construct are very interesting. The causes of this are a new form of wealth creation that is also information intensive (read Silicon valley and the computer industry/cell phones/ or services in general). I recommend reading this book before, with or after Robert Kaplan's vision of the future in "The Coming Anarchy". One aspect of the book that is rather surprising is that they managed to write an entire book on this subject without mentioning Microsoft or the Internet! Then I checked the publication date (1993), and was amazed by the fact that only 7 years ago these entities might not have merited such consideration. This alone helps confirm the Toffler's theories on an quickly changing world, and one in which information is becoming the hot commodity. The waves are also amazingly close to an anthropolgical method of classification- domestic scale society (tribes bands and chiefdoms), political scale society (nation states) and commerical scale society (the emerging global system). I wonder how much interchange of ideas has gone on over the years between the Tofflers and the author of my text book! Very interesting. I worry that their division of the planet into first, second and third wave societies may be a way of anesthetizing the fact that wealth and power are becoming more and more polarized. But this is the reality of our time, and whether or not it is pleasing, books such as this are attempting to make sense out of the present and the future. I will most likely consult this book again in the future when writing papers, or talking with friends about the future of conflict for some time to come. | |
| In Retrospect | |
| I have a certain measure of skepticism concerning the genre that has been called "futurist" or "future studies" because, as is well known, many of the predictions of futurists have been dead wrong. But some futurists are better than others; and it is emminetly rational to try to understand where we are headed and plan for it. The sub-title of this book is : Survival At The Dawn of the 21st Century. Considering that the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 has launched, in a certain sense, the 21st Century, it seems to be an appropriate time to evalute a book by a prominent futurist, written in the early 90s, on war and peace in the 21st Century. This book is rooted in the Tofflerian concepts of the "First Wave," "Second Wave," and the "Third Wave." The First Wave Civilzation is agrarian. The Second Wave Civilization is industrial; the Third Wave civilization in informational. War and peace should be understood in the context of the Third Wave. Predictions: Nation-states will no longer have the sole monopoly on force. New, sophisticated techonolgy will be used. The threat of bio-terrorism. Information will be very important, both in war, and in preventing war. The use of psychological methods in war. Countries should, and will, share knowledge and expertise. Reality: In Afghanistan, the United States attacked Taliban and Al-Qaida bases (Al-Qaida, an international terrorist organization). Satellites and precision bombing were used. There is a fear of a biological counter attack in the United States. There is now an effort to strenghthen our security and intelligence agencies in order to prevent further attack. In the war in Afghanistan, not only bombs were dropped, but also food for the civilians and propaganda pamphelts. In the war on terrorism, the US is assisting the former Soviet Republic of Georgia with weapons and advice. There are some things that turned out differently. For example, some Second and even First Wave methods of war were used. The calvary, 19th century war institution, used in the 21st Century! Another point is the increasing role of civilians in war. True, civilians have not always been passive. In World War II, a national magazine encouraged its readers to come up with ideas on how to win World War II. But it seems that civilians will have an increasing more important role in the waging of war and the preservation of peace. Heroic civilians in one of the hi-jacked planes fought back and may have well saved Congress or the the White House from being attacked. People increased their security , after the attack, by using the newer communication technologies like cell phones and the Internet. As to the second half of the book's title "Anti-War", the predictions are not as adequate--though we should not be too hard on Toffler on this point--the prevention of war is not an easy thing. One of Toffler's suggestions is basically of an international organization like the UN having teeth, that is, armed force. But the only way that will happen is if some world government would have a armed force that is greater than the force of all the major powers combined. Basically what best insures peace is the toppling of tyrants. |
